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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.95vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.72+1.86vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.02+2.44vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.53+0.38vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.72-0.97vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University-0.99+4.98vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.21+1.73vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-0.09+0.45vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.04-0.75vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.94+0.83vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.27+0.64vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.93-1.01vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.45-3.29vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.65-1.53vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.06-6.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.95University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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3.86University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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5.44University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
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4.38University of California at Santa Barbara1.530.1%1st Place
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4.03University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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10.98San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
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8.73University of California at Berkeley-0.210.0%1st Place
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8.45University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.040.0%1st Place
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10.83University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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11.64Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.270.0%1st Place
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10.99University of California at Santa Cruz-0.930.0%1st Place
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9.71University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
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12.47University of California at San Diego-1.650.0%1st Place
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8.3University of California at Los Angeles-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 48.1% | 26.9% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 11.5% | 19.7% | 17.2% | 16.6% | 13.7% | 10.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 5.9% | 6.8% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rory McClish | 9.5% | 13.8% | 15.9% | 17.4% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Paulsen | 13.1% | 15.2% | 16.1% | 16.3% | 15.1% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 16.4% | 10.6% |
| Olivia MacDonald | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| Eliot Briefer | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 15.3% | 10.6% | 12.3% |
| Samuel Stewart | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 17.8% | 21.2% |
| Francine Brownell | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 14.6% | 11.9% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 4.2% |
| Jason Nideffer | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 17.4% | 34.3% |
| Miles Picus | 1.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.