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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.93vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.72+1.77vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.72+0.85vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.02+1.37vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.53-0.67vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.21+2.63vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.45+2.28vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.04+0.11vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.94+1.62vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.27+1.55vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-0.99-0.25vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.93-1.22vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.65-0.45vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.09-5.77vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.81-4.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.93University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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3.77University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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3.85University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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5.37University of California at Berkeley1.020.0%1st Place
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4.33University of California at Santa Barbara1.530.1%1st Place
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8.63University of California at Berkeley-0.210.0%1st Place
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9.28University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
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8.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.040.0%1st Place
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10.62University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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11.55Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.270.0%1st Place
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10.75San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
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10.78University of California at Santa Cruz-0.930.0%1st Place
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12.55University of California at San Diego-1.650.0%1st Place
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8.23University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.24University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 48.6% | 27.7% | 12.6% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 12.0% | 19.6% | 17.4% | 18.2% | 14.3% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Paulsen | 12.7% | 14.7% | 19.7% | 18.2% | 14.6% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 4.9% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rory McClish | 10.7% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 16.6% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia MacDonald | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 1.0% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Eliot Briefer | 2.0% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 9.3% |
| Samuel Stewart | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 17.4% | 18.4% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 12.9% |
| Francine Brownell | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 10.2% |
| Jason Nideffer | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 18.9% | 34.9% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 8.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.