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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.94vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.72+1.81vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.02+2.31vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.72-0.10vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.53-0.67vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.04+2.17vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-0.09+1.20vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.94+2.64vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.27+2.52vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.21-1.39vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.93-0.41vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.45-2.52vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.81-2.54vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.65-1.65vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-0.99-4.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.94University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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3.81University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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5.31University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
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3.9University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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4.33University of California at Santa Barbara1.530.1%1st Place
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8.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.040.0%1st Place
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8.2University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.64University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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11.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.270.0%1st Place
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8.61University of California at Berkeley-0.210.0%1st Place
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10.59University of California at Santa Cruz-0.930.0%1st Place
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9.48University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
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10.46University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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12.35University of California at San Diego-1.650.0%1st Place
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10.71San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 49.1% | 26.2% | 13.6% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Paulsen | 11.5% | 19.6% | 18.8% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 6.0% | 7.5% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 11.4% | 18.5% | 17.0% | 15.8% | 15.0% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rory McClish | 10.4% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 17.4% | 15.3% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eliot Briefer | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Drake Baldwin | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 10.9% |
| Samuel Stewart | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 16.9% | 17.3% |
| Olivia MacDonald | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Francine Brownell | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 11.7% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 8.0% |
| Jason Nideffer | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 34.0% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 14.3% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.