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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.89vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.72+1.71vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.18+1.93vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.53+0.22vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.02+0.42vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.21+2.71vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-0.09+1.33vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.93+2.68vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.04-0.84vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.45-0.57vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-0.99-0.11vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.21-0.30vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.27-1.22vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.44-2.04vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.06-6.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.89University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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3.71University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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4.93University of Southern California1.180.1%1st Place
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4.22University of California at Santa Barbara1.530.1%1st Place
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5.42University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
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8.71University of California at Berkeley-0.210.0%1st Place
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8.33University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.68University of California at Santa Cruz-0.930.0%1st Place
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8.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.040.0%1st Place
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9.43University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
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10.89San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
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11.7University of California at San Diego-1.210.0%1st Place
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11.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.270.0%1st Place
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11.96University of California at Los Angeles-1.440.0%1st Place
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8.19University of California at Los Angeles-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 50.7% | 25.3% | 14.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 12.3% | 21.6% | 17.6% | 16.3% | 14.4% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Kiyotoki | 7.4% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rory McClish | 9.8% | 16.4% | 16.0% | 16.4% | 14.4% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 6.9% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia MacDonald | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Francine Brownell | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 10.4% |
| Eliot Briefer | 1.8% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 15.3% | 12.5% |
| Warren Ko | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 15.3% | 20.9% |
| Samuel Stewart | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 18.0% | 21.7% |
| Zoe Hessler | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 18.5% | 24.7% |
| Miles Picus | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.