← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara1.53+3.12vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-0.16vs Predicted
-
3University of Southern California1.18+1.87vs Predicted
-
4University of Southern California1.72-0.22vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Berkeley1.02+0.32vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Irvine-0.09+2.29vs Predicted
-
7San Diego State University-0.99+3.71vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Los Angeles-0.81+2.32vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Berkeley-0.21-0.43vs Predicted
-
10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.27+1.59vs Predicted
-
11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.04-2.87vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-1.09vs Predicted
-
13University of California at San Diego-1.21-1.35vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.93-3.36vs Predicted
-
15University of California at San Diego-0.45-5.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.12University of California at Santa Barbara1.530.1%1st Place
-
1.84University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
-
4.87University of Southern California1.180.1%1st Place
-
3.78University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
-
5.32University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
-
8.29University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
-
10.71San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
-
10.32University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
-
8.57University of California at Berkeley-0.210.0%1st Place
-
11.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.270.0%1st Place
-
8.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.040.0%1st Place
-
10.91University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
-
11.65University of California at San Diego-1.210.0%1st Place
-
10.64University of California at Santa Cruz-0.930.0%1st Place
-
9.25University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McClish | 10.2% | 17.6% | 17.0% | 17.5% | 13.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 52.0% | 25.3% | 13.8% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Kiyotoki | 6.9% | 11.9% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 11.6% | 19.5% | 19.9% | 14.6% | 15.6% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 6.7% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 14.7% | 13.8% | 14.6% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 12.3% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.1% |
| Olivia MacDonald | 1.3% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Samuel Stewart | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 15.6% | 22.5% |
| Eliot Briefer | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Thomas Garcia | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 12.3% |
| Warren Ko | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 16.3% | 22.6% |
| Francine Brownell | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 12.9% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.