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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.85vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.72+1.71vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.53+1.14vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.02+1.31vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University-0.99+5.80vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.18-1.05vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-0.09+1.19vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.94+2.70vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.81+1.31vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.27+1.63vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.21-2.36vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.04-3.68vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.45-3.48vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.93-3.41vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.21-3.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.85University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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3.71University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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4.14University of California at Santa Barbara1.530.1%1st Place
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5.31University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
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10.8San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
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4.95University of Southern California1.180.1%1st Place
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8.19University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.7University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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10.31University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
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11.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.270.0%1st Place
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8.64University of California at Berkeley-0.210.0%1st Place
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8.32Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.040.0%1st Place
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9.52University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
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10.59University of California at Santa Cruz-0.930.0%1st Place
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11.35University of California at San Diego-1.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 51.5% | 27.1% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 13.7% | 19.8% | 18.6% | 16.8% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rory McClish | 11.8% | 13.5% | 18.6% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 5.5% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 14.1% |
| Aaron Kiyotoki | 5.8% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 15.0% | 16.7% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 13.1% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 8.2% |
| Samuel Stewart | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 16.6% | 21.9% |
| Olivia MacDonald | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| Eliot Briefer | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 0.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% |
| Francine Brownell | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 11.5% |
| Warren Ko | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 19.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.