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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.86+7.40vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.15+1.88vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.39+2.80vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.94+3.83vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+2.83vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+4.05vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.78-0.34vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.20+1.64vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.06-2.73vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.59+0.31vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.39-3.05vs Predicted
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12Boston College1.95-4.48vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.87-2.95vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.57-5.49vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University1.49-5.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.4Brown University1.864.7%1st Place
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3.88Stanford University3.1519.7%1st Place
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5.8Dartmouth College2.3911.4%1st Place
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7.83Roger Williams University1.944.9%1st Place
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7.83Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.587.3%1st Place
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10.05U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.402.8%1st Place
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6.66University of Rhode Island2.788.6%1st Place
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9.64Connecticut College1.204.2%1st Place
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6.27Bowdoin College2.068.7%1st Place
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10.31Northeastern University1.593.5%1st Place
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7.95Boston University1.395.7%1st Place
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7.52Boston College1.956.4%1st Place
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10.05University of Vermont0.873.4%1st Place
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8.51Yale University1.574.7%1st Place
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9.29Northwestern University1.494.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Borcherding | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 19.7% | 18.1% | 15.8% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Mathieu Dale | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Robert Ulmer | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.2% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 15.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Skylor Sweet | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 13.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 18.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 16.7% |
| Audrey Foley | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% |
| Shea Smith | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.