Race 1A

fall-foliage

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Michael Kann 16.1% 19.7% 16.8% 17.1% 14.1% 9.5% 3.9% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael O'Flaherty 28.8% 22.3% 18.2% 13.0% 9.2% 4.5% 3.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Schneider 14.9% 14.3% 16.6% 16.7% 14.4% 12.4% 7.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
River Iannaccone 2.9% 4.2% 3.9% 5.9% 8.1% 10.3% 19.7% 23.5% 15.7% 5.3% 0.5%
Charlotte Lenz 12.7% 13.9% 14.7% 14.0% 14.4% 13.1% 8.8% 6.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Noah Brayer 4.4% 4.9% 6.0% 6.1% 11.2% 12.0% 18.6% 19.7% 13.1% 3.8% 0.2%
Robert Bartlett 12.4% 13.1% 14.0% 14.7% 14.3% 14.5% 8.3% 5.8% 2.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Hugh Dougherty 5.6% 5.3% 7.6% 9.1% 9.4% 16.4% 16.7% 16.7% 10.9% 2.1% 0.2%
Laura Crowley 1.4% 2.1% 1.5% 3.0% 3.4% 5.4% 8.6% 15.4% 35.2% 17.9% 6.1%
Luke Haggerty 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 1.3% 2.2% 4.0% 11.5% 40.1% 38.8%
Jamie Vaccaro 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 2.1% 3.5% 7.8% 30.3% 54.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.