Race 2A

fall-foliage

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Peter Schneider 13.4% 17.4% 15.9% 18.0% 13.9% 12.4% 5.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Michael Kann 18.5% 18.0% 18.5% 16.2% 11.6% 8.6% 5.6% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Bartlett 10.0% 10.5% 13.5% 14.6% 15.5% 15.4% 12.5% 5.8% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0%
River Iannaccone 2.9% 4.3% 3.7% 6.2% 8.9% 10.2% 17.9% 23.8% 16.4% 5.2% 0.5%
Charlotte Lenz 13.1% 13.6% 15.0% 14.5% 14.0% 12.3% 9.6% 5.8% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Hugh Dougherty 4.2% 6.1% 6.9% 7.3% 11.2% 14.4% 17.6% 17.9% 11.5% 2.7% 0.2%
Michael O'Flaherty 30.9% 23.2% 16.8% 12.3% 8.7% 4.6% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Noah Brayer 4.9% 4.4% 7.0% 7.4% 11.3% 15.5% 16.6% 16.7% 13.2% 2.8% 0.2%
Laura Crowley 1.4% 2.2% 1.9% 2.8% 3.6% 4.7% 7.8% 16.6% 34.8% 18.1% 6.1%
Luke Haggerty 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 1.2% 2.2% 4.3% 11.0% 40.1% 38.8%
Jamie Vaccaro 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 2.1% 3.2% 7.7% 30.7% 54.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.