Race 3A

fall-foliage

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Peter Schneider 13.9% 14.6% 13.6% 17.2% 14.1% 11.9% 7.5% 4.4% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Michael Kann 16.7% 17.9% 17.3% 14.6% 10.5% 11.9% 6.3% 2.9% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte Lenz 13.1% 12.3% 13.8% 11.4% 14.3% 11.7% 12.3% 6.8% 3.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Michael O'Flaherty 24.9% 24.2% 15.9% 14.7% 8.5% 6.8% 2.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Hugh Dougherty 4.4% 4.5% 6.2% 7.0% 9.5% 11.2% 14.5% 14.2% 14.6% 11.6% 2.1% 0.2%
River Iannaccone 3.7% 3.1% 4.5% 7.0% 6.9% 7.5% 12.8% 15.9% 19.5% 15.2% 3.7% 0.2%
Robert Bartlett 11.4% 11.1% 13.8% 11.9% 13.7% 12.6% 10.3% 8.5% 5.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Hannah Ker 5.4% 5.0% 6.4% 7.1% 8.6% 11.8% 11.8% 15.2% 15.8% 9.6% 3.2% 0.1%
Laura Crowley 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 3.6% 3.9% 6.9% 9.9% 15.7% 34.9% 17.4% 1.9%
Noah Brayer 4.4% 5.6% 5.7% 6.7% 9.3% 9.1% 12.4% 17.6% 15.6% 10.6% 2.7% 0.3%
Luke Haggerty 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 1.3% 1.6% 3.7% 9.1% 40.1% 40.8%
Jamie Vaccaro 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.3% 3.0% 5.7% 30.1% 56.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.