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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College1.20+8.68vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.86+6.55vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.15+0.83vs Predicted
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4Boston College1.95+3.60vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.06+1.34vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.59+3.90vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+3.21vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.39-2.05vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-1.12vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.94-2.30vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University1.49-1.69vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.87-1.94vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.57-4.73vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.39-5.87vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.78-8.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.68Connecticut College1.203.5%1st Place
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8.55Brown University1.865.1%1st Place
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3.83Stanford University3.1521.1%1st Place
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7.6Boston College1.956.6%1st Place
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6.34Bowdoin College2.069.3%1st Place
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9.9Northeastern University1.593.4%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.0%1st Place
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5.95Dartmouth College2.399.8%1st Place
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7.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.585.9%1st Place
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7.7Roger Williams University1.946.2%1st Place
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9.31Northwestern University1.493.5%1st Place
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10.06University of Vermont0.873.2%1st Place
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8.27Yale University1.575.5%1st Place
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8.13Boston University1.394.3%1st Place
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6.6University of Rhode Island2.789.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skylor Sweet | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 13.9% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 21.1% | 16.6% | 17.0% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.3% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 14.3% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 18.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Mathieu Dale | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Shea Smith | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.4% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 15.2% |
| Audrey Foley | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.4% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.