Race 1B

fall-foliage

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

83.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Thomas Harden 49.2% 26.8% 14.1% 5.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan Walker 5.9% 11.5% 12.2% 15.9% 17.0% 13.6% 13.0% 8.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Elena Gonick 8.7% 10.9% 14.4% 13.9% 14.5% 15.6% 13.0% 7.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Louis Frumer 13.5% 20.0% 18.5% 16.8% 13.4% 12.1% 3.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Evan Robison 10.7% 14.6% 16.3% 17.8% 14.5% 12.3% 8.2% 3.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Carter Goodell 1.2% 1.0% 1.7% 2.6% 4.0% 4.6% 7.1% 16.1% 32.8% 25.3% 3.4% 0.2%
Jack Eberhardt 6.2% 7.5% 10.8% 12.6% 14.1% 15.2% 17.0% 11.3% 4.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Thomas Bouchard 2.3% 5.4% 7.3% 7.1% 9.4% 13.7% 17.8% 19.5% 13.7% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Griffin Brayer 2.0% 1.5% 3.7% 5.5% 7.4% 9.4% 16.2% 26.1% 20.2% 7.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Alexandra Burke 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 1.7% 2.9% 2.0% 3.2% 5.2% 19.1% 51.1% 12.8% 0.8%
Christopher Rabasa 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 2.3% 6.3% 56.4% 32.4%
Sara Shamenek 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.3% 4.1% 26.8% 66.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.