Race 2B

fall-foliage

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

83.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Thomas Harden 46.9% 28.0% 14.0% 7.5% 2.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louis Frumer 14.0% 18.4% 21.2% 16.5% 10.9% 11.3% 5.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan Walker 7.7% 9.3% 12.3% 14.3% 15.1% 16.6% 14.8% 7.4% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elena Gonick 6.4% 13.2% 13.0% 16.9% 14.8% 14.2% 12.6% 6.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Jack Eberhardt 5.7% 7.3% 10.4% 12.3% 17.2% 14.2% 14.8% 11.8% 5.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Carter Goodell 1.2% 1.0% 1.7% 2.4% 3.5% 5.8% 7.3% 14.8% 33.0% 25.8% 3.3% 0.2%
Thomas Bouchard 3.5% 5.1% 6.3% 7.7% 11.0% 11.2% 16.9% 21.6% 13.4% 2.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Evan Robison 11.9% 15.2% 17.4% 15.2% 15.1% 11.6% 7.7% 4.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Griffin Brayer 2.3% 1.8% 2.9% 5.1% 7.3% 10.7% 16.6% 24.6% 21.1% 7.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Alexandra Burke 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 1.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 6.0% 17.6% 51.9% 12.8% 0.8%
Christopher Rabasa 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 2.3% 6.5% 56.3% 32.4%
Sara Shamenek 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 1.2% 4.2% 26.8% 66.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.