Race 3B

fall-foliage

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Louis Frumer 13.4% 15.4% 19.1% 16.1% 13.1% 10.3% 7.6% 2.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elena Gonick 7.3% 9.7% 11.8% 13.5% 15.0% 13.6% 11.4% 7.9% 7.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Evan Robison 8.6% 14.3% 15.0% 15.8% 12.8% 12.9% 10.7% 6.0% 2.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Zach Zeelander 4.8% 8.8% 9.0% 9.6% 15.6% 12.5% 12.8% 13.0% 9.6% 3.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan Walker 8.1% 9.0% 10.9% 14.9% 10.9% 14.0% 12.6% 11.3% 6.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Thomas Bouchard 2.5% 4.3% 5.6% 6.5% 9.5% 8.9% 12.9% 16.3% 18.2% 12.1% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Thomas Harden 47.1% 25.2% 14.4% 7.8% 3.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Carter Goodell 0.5% 1.6% 1.9% 2.3% 2.9% 3.6% 4.3% 8.8% 14.0% 32.9% 24.1% 2.9% 0.2%
Jack Eberhardt 5.6% 7.4% 8.2% 10.0% 10.5% 14.1% 14.5% 12.7% 10.8% 5.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Griffin Brayer 1.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.0% 5.4% 6.4% 9.3% 15.7% 20.4% 20.3% 9.8% 1.0% 0.0%
Alexandra Burke 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 1.7% 2.8% 4.8% 7.7% 18.1% 48.9% 12.1% 1.1%
Christopher Rabasa 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 2.4% 8.0% 54.9% 32.7%
Sara Shamenek 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 3.3% 28.6% 66.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.