← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+2.11vs Predicted
-
2Stanford University3.01+0.81vs Predicted
-
3Stanford University1.60+3.02vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Irvine1.06+3.59vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Barbara1.75+0.77vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Santa Barbara1.71-0.17vs Predicted
-
7Santa Clara University-0.65+4.91vs Predicted
-
8Santa Clara University0.21+2.02vs Predicted
-
9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-2.54vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Los Angeles0.61-0.99vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Los Angeles0.52-1.78vs Predicted
-
12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-3.79vs Predicted
-
13University of Southern California1.27-5.79vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Santa Barbara-1.36-0.76vs Predicted
-
15University of California at San Diego-1.65-1.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.11University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.3%1st Place
-
2.81Stanford University3.010.3%1st Place
-
6.02Stanford University1.600.1%1st Place
-
7.59University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
-
5.77University of California at Santa Barbara1.750.1%1st Place
-
5.83University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
-
11.91Santa Clara University-0.650.0%1st Place
-
10.02Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
-
6.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
-
9.01University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
-
9.22University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
-
8.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
-
7.21University of Southern California1.270.0%1st Place
-
13.24University of California at Santa Barbara-1.360.0%1st Place
-
13.6University of California at San Diego-1.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Weis | 25.8% | 21.3% | 17.4% | 13.5% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Russell Clarida | 30.3% | 23.9% | 15.8% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nestor Cano Sostre | 7.0% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Kerri Luttrell | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sampson Reynolds | 5.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Collins | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 23.7% | 21.5% | 13.7% |
| Robbie Culkin | 1.8% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 16.5% | 16.1% | 8.0% | 2.3% |
| Liam Hood | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| Abraham Dearden | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 1.2% |
| Joseph Lausten | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Lorea Mendiguren | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| William Boystak | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 31.3% | 33.9% |
| Jason Nideffer | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 11.4% | 24.8% | 47.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.