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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles0.61+7.79vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+1.05vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine1.06+4.57vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.52+5.17vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.27+2.09vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.01-3.11vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.71-1.19vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+0.01vs Predicted
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9Stanford University1.60-2.90vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University0.21+0.07vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.75-5.22vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-5.25vs Predicted
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13Santa Clara University-0.65-0.92vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.65-0.34vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara-1.36-1.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.79University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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3.05University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.3%1st Place
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7.57University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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9.17University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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7.09University of Southern California1.270.1%1st Place
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2.89Stanford University3.010.3%1st Place
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5.81University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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8.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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6.1Stanford University1.600.1%1st Place
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10.07Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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5.78University of California at Santa Barbara1.750.1%1st Place
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6.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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12.08Santa Clara University-0.650.0%1st Place
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13.66University of California at San Diego-1.650.0%1st Place
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13.18University of California at Santa Barbara-1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Christopher Weis | 25.8% | 22.3% | 16.8% | 14.7% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 3.8% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 0.9% |
| Lorea Mendiguren | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Russell Clarida | 26.3% | 25.2% | 18.0% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sampson Reynolds | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Nestor Cano Sostre | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Robbie Culkin | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 15.8% | 14.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% |
| Kerri Luttrell | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Peter Collins | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 11.9% | 23.6% | 24.3% | 12.9% |
| Jason Nideffer | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 10.6% | 26.2% | 46.8% |
| William Boystak | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 15.3% | 28.1% | 35.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.