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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+2.12vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine1.06+5.53vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.61+5.92vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.01-1.10vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.75+0.80vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+2.13vs Predicted
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7Stanford University1.60-0.87vs Predicted
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8Santa Clara University0.21+2.12vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University-0.65+3.15vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California1.27-2.83vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.52-1.71vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.71-5.90vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara-0.64-0.74vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.65-0.18vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-8.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.12University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.2%1st Place
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7.53University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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8.92University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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2.9Stanford University3.010.3%1st Place
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5.8University of California at Santa Barbara1.750.1%1st Place
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8.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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6.13Stanford University1.600.1%1st Place
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10.12Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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12.15Santa Clara University-0.650.0%1st Place
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7.17University of Southern California1.270.0%1st Place
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9.29University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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6.1University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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12.26University of California at Santa Barbara-0.640.0%1st Place
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13.82University of California at San Diego-1.650.0%1st Place
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6.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Weis | 24.5% | 23.4% | 17.4% | 13.1% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| Russell Clarida | 28.6% | 23.6% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kerri Luttrell | 8.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Lausten | 3.0% | 2.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Nestor Cano Sostre | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 15.7% | 11.0% | 3.5% |
| Peter Collins | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 18.2% | 26.3% | 16.0% |
| Lorea Mendiguren | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Abraham Dearden | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 1.9% |
| Sampson Reynolds | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| George Kripac | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 10.5% | 18.2% | 28.2% | 17.9% |
| Jason Nideffer | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 8.9% | 18.1% | 58.4% |
| Liam Hood | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.