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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.01+1.91vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine1.06+5.61vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+0.06vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.71+1.82vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.61+4.02vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.52+3.30vs Predicted
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7Stanford University1.60-0.86vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.75-2.14vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.27-1.94vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University0.21+0.19vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara-0.64+1.12vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-3.71vs Predicted
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13Santa Clara University-0.65-0.75vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.65-0.16vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-8.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.91Stanford University3.010.3%1st Place
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7.61University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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3.06University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.3%1st Place
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5.82University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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9.02University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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9.3University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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6.14Stanford University1.600.1%1st Place
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5.86University of California at Santa Barbara1.750.1%1st Place
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7.06University of Southern California1.270.0%1st Place
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10.19Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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12.12University of California at Santa Barbara-0.640.0%1st Place
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8.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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12.25Santa Clara University-0.650.0%1st Place
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13.84University of California at San Diego-1.650.0%1st Place
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6.53Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Clarida | 28.0% | 24.8% | 16.6% | 12.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 3.9% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Weis | 26.0% | 21.8% | 17.2% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sampson Reynolds | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 14.4% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 1.3% |
| Abraham Dearden | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Nestor Cano Sostre | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kerri Luttrell | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lorea Mendiguren | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Robbie Culkin | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 16.5% | 14.9% | 9.3% | 4.3% |
| George Kripac | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 17.0% | 27.4% | 16.7% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Peter Collins | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 18.1% | 28.8% | 16.7% |
| Jason Nideffer | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 8.9% | 18.5% | 58.2% |
| Liam Hood | 5.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.