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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.01+1.89vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+1.03vs Predicted
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3Stanford University1.60+3.08vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.52+5.24vs Predicted
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5Santa Clara University-0.65+7.12vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.61+3.04vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine1.06+0.64vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.75-2.26vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.27-1.94vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University0.21+0.24vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-2.84vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.71-5.99vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-6.20vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara-0.64-1.83vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.65-1.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.89Stanford University3.010.3%1st Place
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3.03University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.3%1st Place
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6.08Stanford University1.600.1%1st Place
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9.24University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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12.12Santa Clara University-0.650.0%1st Place
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9.04University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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7.64University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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5.74University of California at Santa Barbara1.750.1%1st Place
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7.06University of Southern California1.270.0%1st Place
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10.24Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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8.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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6.01University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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6.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
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12.17University of California at Santa Barbara-0.640.0%1st Place
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13.77University of California at San Diego-1.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Clarida | 28.3% | 23.1% | 18.2% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Weis | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.9% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nestor Cano Sostre | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Abraham Dearden | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 1.0% |
| Peter Collins | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 10.9% | 16.7% | 27.5% | 17.6% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 2.8% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 1.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Kerri Luttrell | 7.3% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lorea Mendiguren | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Robbie Culkin | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 15.9% | 16.0% | 11.1% | 3.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Sampson Reynolds | 5.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Liam Hood | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| George Kripac | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 18.7% | 27.2% | 16.7% |
| Jason Nideffer | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 9.1% | 16.6% | 59.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.