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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.95+6.43vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.15+1.86vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.39+2.84vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.94+3.81vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University1.49+4.03vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78+0.65vs Predicted
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7Yale University1.57+1.35vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.86+0.48vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.20+0.88vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.87-0.04vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-3.24vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.39-3.91vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-2.99vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.59-3.64vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.06-8.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.43Boston College1.955.9%1st Place
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3.86Stanford University3.1522.2%1st Place
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5.84Dartmouth College2.3910.4%1st Place
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7.81Roger Williams University1.946.3%1st Place
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9.03Northwestern University1.494.6%1st Place
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6.65University of Rhode Island2.787.4%1st Place
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8.35Yale University1.574.7%1st Place
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8.48Brown University1.865.2%1st Place
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9.88Connecticut College1.203.4%1st Place
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9.96University of Vermont0.873.5%1st Place
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7.76Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.586.2%1st Place
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8.09Boston University1.395.5%1st Place
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10.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.402.9%1st Place
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10.36Northeastern University1.592.6%1st Place
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6.48Bowdoin College2.069.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 22.2% | 17.3% | 14.5% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.4% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Mathieu Dale | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% |
| Shea Smith | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Audrey Foley | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% |
| Skylor Sweet | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 13.5% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 15.3% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 14.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 17.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.