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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.15+1.73vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+1.17vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.52+6.53vs Predicted
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4Santa Clara University0.76+4.90vs Predicted
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5Stanford University1.60+1.45vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine1.06+2.07vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.27+0.34vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+0.43vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.75-3.05vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University0.59-0.50vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-4.09vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.71-5.69vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.65+0.96vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.61-4.71vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara-1.36-1.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.73Stanford University3.150.3%1st Place
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3.17University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.2%1st Place
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9.53University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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8.9Santa Clara University0.760.0%1st Place
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6.45Stanford University1.600.1%1st Place
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8.07University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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7.34University of Southern California1.270.1%1st Place
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8.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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5.95University of California at Santa Barbara1.750.1%1st Place
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9.5Santa Clara University0.590.0%1st Place
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6.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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6.31University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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13.96University of California at San Diego-1.650.0%1st Place
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9.29University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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13.46University of California at Santa Barbara-1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Marshall | 31.1% | 25.6% | 16.3% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Weis | 24.7% | 21.7% | 17.4% | 13.8% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 14.9% | 7.9% | 1.3% |
| Briggs Lalor | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Nestor Cano Sostre | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Brian MacLean | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Lorea Mendiguren | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Kerri Luttrell | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Dana | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 15.3% | 6.3% | 1.9% |
| Liam Hood | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Sampson Reynolds | 6.0% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jason Nideffer | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 28.6% | 54.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 6.7% | 1.1% |
| William Boystak | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 8.1% | 35.9% | 39.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.