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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.94+6.83vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.15+1.86vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.39+2.94vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.06+2.26vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78+1.57vs Predicted
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6Boston College1.95+1.51vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.39+1.11vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.86+0.54vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.20+0.76vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.59+0.19vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-3.18vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.57-3.44vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University1.49-3.72vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.87-4.29vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-4.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.83Roger Williams University1.945.9%1st Place
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3.86Stanford University3.1521.4%1st Place
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5.94Dartmouth College2.3910.7%1st Place
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6.26Bowdoin College2.069.4%1st Place
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6.57University of Rhode Island2.788.8%1st Place
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7.51Boston College1.956.5%1st Place
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8.11Boston University1.395.6%1st Place
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8.54Brown University1.864.6%1st Place
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9.76Connecticut College1.203.6%1st Place
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10.19Northeastern University1.592.6%1st Place
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7.82Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.586.4%1st Place
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8.56Yale University1.574.3%1st Place
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9.28Northwestern University1.494.2%1st Place
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9.71University of Vermont0.873.0%1st Place
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10.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Dale | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 3.6% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 21.4% | 17.2% | 16.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.4% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.4% |
| Skylor Sweet | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 14.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 16.4% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% |
| Audrey Foley | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% |
| Shea Smith | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 14.7% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 16.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.