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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.94+6.62vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.06+4.13vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.38+2.55vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.78+2.54vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.15-1.11vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.86+2.44vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.59+3.16vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-0.30vs Predicted
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9Boston College1.95-1.38vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.00+0.76vs Predicted
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11Yale University1.57-2.56vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-1.94vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University1.49-3.73vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.39-5.99vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.87-5.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.62Roger Williams University1.945.9%1st Place
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6.13Bowdoin College2.069.4%1st Place
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5.55Dartmouth College2.3812.2%1st Place
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6.54University of Rhode Island2.789.2%1st Place
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3.89Stanford University3.1521.4%1st Place
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8.44Brown University1.864.5%1st Place
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10.16Northeastern University1.592.6%1st Place
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7.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.586.6%1st Place
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7.62Boston College1.956.4%1st Place
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10.76Connecticut College1.002.6%1st Place
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8.44Yale University1.574.4%1st Place
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10.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.0%1st Place
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9.27Northwestern University1.493.6%1st Place
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8.01Boston University1.395.5%1st Place
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9.81University of Vermont0.872.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Dale | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| William Michels | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 21.4% | 17.1% | 15.7% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 15.2% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| William Hurd | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 21.2% |
| Audrey Foley | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 14.6% |
| Shea Smith | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 12.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.