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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.38+4.77vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+5.77vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.39+4.88vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.15-0.08vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.59+5.07vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.94+1.81vs Predicted
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7Boston College1.95+0.74vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.86+0.47vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.06-2.84vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.00+0.51vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-1.00vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.78-5.41vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.57-4.71vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University1.49-4.81vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.87-5.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.77Dartmouth College2.3812.2%1st Place
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7.77Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.585.3%1st Place
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7.88Boston University1.395.7%1st Place
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3.92Stanford University3.1520.5%1st Place
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10.07Northeastern University1.593.0%1st Place
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7.81Roger Williams University1.946.2%1st Place
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7.74Boston College1.956.2%1st Place
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8.47Brown University1.864.8%1st Place
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6.16Bowdoin College2.069.1%1st Place
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10.51Connecticut College1.002.4%1st Place
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10.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.402.5%1st Place
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6.59University of Rhode Island2.788.6%1st Place
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8.29Yale University1.574.9%1st Place
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9.19Northwestern University1.494.4%1st Place
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9.83University of Vermont0.874.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
William Michels | 12.2% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
Robert Ulmer | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% |
Noah Robitshek | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% |
Thomas Sitzmann | 20.5% | 18.9% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Adrian Winkelman | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 16.2% |
Mathieu Dale | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% |
Ian Hopkins Guerra | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
Leyton Borcherding | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% |
Sam Bonauto | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
William Hurd | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 18.2% |
Bradley Whiteway | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 16.1% |
Kerem Erkmen | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
Audrey Foley | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% |
Shea Smith | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 8.8% |
Christian Cushman | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.