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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Wesleyan University0.55+3.60vs Predicted
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2Fairfield University0.64+2.58vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-0.88vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College1.26-0.46vs Predicted
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5Bates College1.28-1.54vs Predicted
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6University of Connecticut0.19-0.79vs Predicted
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7University of Massachusetts at Amherst0.45-2.14vs Predicted
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9Bentley University-2.05-1.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.6Wesleyan University0.550.1%1st Place
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4.58Fairfield University0.640.1%1st Place
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2.12Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.4%1st Place
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3.54Middlebury College1.260.1%1st Place
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3.46Bates College1.280.1%1st Place
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5.21University of Connecticut0.190.1%1st Place
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4.86University of Massachusetts at Amherst0.450.1%1st Place
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7.63Bentley University-2.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Barton | 7.0% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 17.1% | 20.1% | 16.9% | 1.8% |
| Lillian Vincens | 8.1% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 14.7% | 19.0% | 16.7% | 16.6% | 2.9% |
| Frank Reeg | 43.0% | 25.0% | 17.1% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Baskin | 14.5% | 19.3% | 16.4% | 19.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 0.6% |
| Dylan Whitcraft | 14.5% | 20.7% | 20.0% | 14.4% | 14.7% | 11.2% | 4.2% | 0.3% |
| Danielle Elson | 5.5% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 17.8% | 29.4% | 5.1% |
| Noah Brayer | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 20.5% | 20.7% | 4.2% |
| Nicole Owens | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 85.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.