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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.81+4.57vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+2.72vs Predicted
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3George Washington University3.41+4.04vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.14+4.08vs Predicted
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5Hampton University3.02+3.34vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+1.34vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.95+1.81vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.63-1.79vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.69+0.91vs Predicted
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10Columbia University1.65+3.20vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.80-1.50vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook2.59-1.90vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University3.50-6.16vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-6.33vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia2.12-3.27vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.96-3.67vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.58-1.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.57Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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4.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.2%1st Place
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7.04George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.08Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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8.34Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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7.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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8.81Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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6.21U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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9.91SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
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13.2Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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9.5University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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10.1SUNY Stony Brook2.590.0%1st Place
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6.84Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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7.67St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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11.73University of Virginia2.120.0%1st Place
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12.33Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
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15.6Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Segerblom | 12.8% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 15.5% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Clark Uhl | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Charles Lomax | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Gary Prieto | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Comerford | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 1.8% |
| Adam DeVita | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 14.2% | 23.0% | 14.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 1.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 2.6% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Dane Byerly | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Colin Suvak | 1.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 5.9% |
| Vir Menon | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 16.0% | 9.6% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 13.6% | 61.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.