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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.25+5.64vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+4.45vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+3.08vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+1.82vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.12+1.86vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.89+1.75vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.72+1.37vs Predicted
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8Fordham University3.16-1.29vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.22-2.54vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-0.96vs Predicted
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11Villanova University1.57+1.61vs Predicted
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12Hampton University2.26-1.62vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook0.90+1.37vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.43-4.81vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.89-3.64vs Predicted
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16Columbia University0.51-0.50vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.72-1.96vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia1.57-5.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.64SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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6.45St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.08Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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5.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.86University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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7.75Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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8.37George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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6.71Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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6.46U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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9.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.1%1st Place
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12.61Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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10.38Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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14.37SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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9.19Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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11.36Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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15.5Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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15.04Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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12.36University of Virginia1.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Hill | 9.1% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 10.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 12.1% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Roberto Stevens | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 8.3% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hunter | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Max Gillette | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 6.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 14.8% | 20.0% | 19.8% |
| Thomas Balk | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Spencer Charney | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Nicole Edwards | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 21.5% | 35.3% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 21.0% | 27.9% |
| Victor Layne | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 5.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.