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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.06vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.89+5.89vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59+6.00vs Predicted
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4Hampton University2.26+5.90vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.39+0.82vs Predicted
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6Villanova University1.57+6.50vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-0.75vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia1.57+4.37vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.22-2.64vs Predicted
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10Fordham University3.16-3.03vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.72-2.60vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.89-0.38vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.27-3.13vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.51+1.27vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook0.90-0.48vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.25-9.59vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.72-1.91vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania3.12-11.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.89Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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9.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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9.9Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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5.82Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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12.5Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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6.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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12.37University of Virginia1.570.0%1st Place
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6.36U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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6.97Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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8.4George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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11.62Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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9.87Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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15.27Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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14.52SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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6.41SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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15.09Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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6.71University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Hunter | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| William Logue | 12.8% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Gillette | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 6.1% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.7% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Victor Layne | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 5.6% |
| Peter Hogan | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 2.8% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Nicole Edwards | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 20.7% | 31.7% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 11.0% | 15.4% | 19.9% | 20.3% |
| Zachary Hill | 9.4% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 14.1% | 20.5% | 30.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.