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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.72+7.37vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.06+5.19vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+2.98vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.25+2.25vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.27+4.87vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.22+0.45vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+0.55vs Predicted
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8Hampton University2.26+1.82vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia1.57+3.40vs Predicted
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10Villanova University1.57+2.58vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-2.13vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-5.50vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania3.12-6.34vs Predicted
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14Fordham University3.16-7.55vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.89-3.74vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook0.90-1.50vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.51-1.51vs Predicted
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18Drexel University0.72-3.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.37George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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7.19Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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5.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.25SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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9.87Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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6.45U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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7.55Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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9.82Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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12.4University of Virginia1.570.0%1st Place
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12.58Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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8.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.1%1st Place
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6.5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.66University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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6.45Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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11.26Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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14.5SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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15.49Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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14.81Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Roger Dorr | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 11.2% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| Peter Hogan | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Victor Layne | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 4.6% |
| Max Gillette | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 6.1% |
| Ryan Hunter | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 15.1% | 18.6% | 21.4% |
| Nicole Edwards | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 20.3% | 37.1% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 20.6% | 25.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.