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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.98vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.06+5.18vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.22+3.53vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+2.09vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.16+1.65vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59+2.77vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.72+1.19vs Predicted
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8Hampton University2.26+1.82vs Predicted
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9Villanova University1.57+3.48vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College3.25-3.50vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.27-0.98vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia1.57+0.70vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania3.12-6.32vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.89-6.63vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.89-3.76vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook0.90-1.50vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.51-1.51vs Predicted
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18Drexel University0.72-3.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.18Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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6.53U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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6.09St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.65Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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8.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.1%1st Place
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8.19George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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9.82Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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12.48Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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6.5SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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10.02Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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12.7University of Virginia1.570.0%1st Place
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6.68University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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7.37Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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11.24Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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14.5SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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15.49Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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14.81Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 10.1% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Peter Hogan | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 11.5% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 9.1% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hunter | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Max Gillette | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 4.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Victor Layne | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 6.6% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 18.1% | 21.5% |
| Nicole Edwards | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 20.8% | 37.2% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 16.2% | 21.5% | 24.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.