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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.27+8.08vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.72+5.51vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.06+3.41vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.22+1.89vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59+2.89vs Predicted
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6Hampton University2.26+3.41vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-1.38vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.25-2.24vs Predicted
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9Drexel University0.72+5.20vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.89+0.48vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.71-3.23vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-6.68vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.86-2.22vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia1.57-2.22vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook0.90-1.46vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.89-9.01vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.51-2.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.08Cornell University2.270.1%1st Place
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7.51George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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6.41Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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5.89U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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7.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.1%1st Place
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9.41Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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5.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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5.76SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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14.2Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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10.48Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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7.77Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
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5.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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10.78University of Pennsylvania1.860.0%1st Place
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11.78University of Virginia1.570.0%1st Place
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13.54SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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6.99Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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14.56Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Eastman | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Peter Hogan | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Hunter | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Liam McCarthy | 10.8% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 22.8% | 27.1% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.6% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 2.7% |
| Matt Cappetta | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Hector Guzman | 13.2% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Probst | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% |
| Victor Layne | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 5.8% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 15.8% | 20.6% | 20.6% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Edwards | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 19.1% | 37.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.