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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.72+6.43vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+3.19vs Predicted
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3Hampton University2.26+6.21vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.06+2.48vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.54vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.71+1.82vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.27+2.30vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-0.11vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.25-3.07vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.86+0.58vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.22-4.96vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.89-1.49vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.89-5.88vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.51+0.60vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook0.90-1.47vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia1.57-4.27vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.72-2.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.43George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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5.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.21Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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6.48Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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5.54St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.82Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
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9.3Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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7.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.1%1st Place
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5.93SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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10.58University of Pennsylvania1.860.0%1st Place
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6.04U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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10.51Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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7.12Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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14.6Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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13.53SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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11.73University of Virginia1.570.0%1st Place
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14.11Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Sheerin | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 13.2% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Roger Dorr | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Liam McCarthy | 12.9% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matt Cappetta | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Gerard Eastman | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Ryan Hunter | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Zachary Hill | 8.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Probst | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 3.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 11.2% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| Jack Elkin | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Edwards | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 21.7% | 37.2% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 21.1% | 20.5% |
| Victor Layne | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 6.4% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 13.2% | 22.5% | 27.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.