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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.41vs Predicted
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2Hampton University2.26+7.44vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+2.98vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.89+3.29vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.22+0.99vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.27+3.75vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.06-0.28vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59+0.23vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.71-0.90vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.89+0.83vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia1.57+0.92vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.72-4.12vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.25-6.87vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania3.12-7.38vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.72-0.86vs Predicted
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16Columbia University0.51-1.24vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook0.90-3.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.44Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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5.98St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.29Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.99U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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9.75Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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6.72Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.1%1st Place
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8.1Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
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10.83Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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11.92University of Virginia1.570.0%1st Place
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7.88George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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6.13SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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6.62University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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14.14Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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14.76Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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13.84SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 12.9% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
| Liam McCarthy | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Roger Dorr | 8.7% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hunter | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Matt Cappetta | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 3.0% |
| Victor Layne | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 7.1% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 8.1% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 21.5% | 28.5% |
| Nicole Edwards | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 22.2% | 36.8% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 15.5% | 21.4% | 22.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.