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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.19+7.82vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.53+5.45vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.71+3.69vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College1.95+9.39vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+4.56vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.97+3.54vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.24+1.38vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.25+0.30vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-2.08vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.79+0.57vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59+0.23vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.43+0.12vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston3.23-4.67vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.25-5.90vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.22-6.61vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.49-4.38vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.88-3.10vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-10.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.82Dartmouth College3.190.1%1st Place
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7.45Georgetown University3.530.1%1st Place
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6.69Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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13.39Eckerd College1.950.0%1st Place
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9.56St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
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9.54Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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8.38Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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8.3Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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6.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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10.57Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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11.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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12.12Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.33College of Charleston3.230.1%1st Place
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8.1SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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8.39U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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11.62George Washington University2.490.0%1st Place
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13.9Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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7.68Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Williford | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Andy Reiter | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Martim Anderson | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Shannon | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 25.1% |
| Edmund Cooper | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% |
| Robby Gearon | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Cameron Holley | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Charles Miller | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Sam Alexander | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 4.2% |
| Ryan Hunter | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% |
| Thomas Balk | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 10.8% |
| Steven Leuck | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Zachary Hill | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Peter Hogan | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.5% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 2.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 15.6% | 28.4% |
| Trevor Long | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.