← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+5.32vs Predicted
-
2Stanford University3.01+1.07vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-0.02vs Predicted
-
4California State University Monterey Bay-0.56+10.36vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Berkeley1.66+1.55vs Predicted
-
6University of Southern California1.61+0.50vs Predicted
-
7Western Washington University0.24+4.47vs Predicted
-
8University of Southern California0.28+3.53vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Los Angeles0.52+1.23vs Predicted
-
10University of Washington0.79-0.67vs Predicted
-
11University of British Columbia-0.12+1.77vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Berkeley0.04+0.58vs Predicted
-
13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-4.37vs Predicted
-
14University of California at San Diego-0.45+0.07vs Predicted
-
15San Diego State University-0.25-1.92vs Predicted
-
16University of Hawaii1.88-10.31vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Santa Cruz0.12-5.18vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Davis-0.38-4.27vs Predicted
-
19California State University Monterey Bay-0.56-4.64vs Predicted
-
20California State University Channel Islands-0.97-4.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.32University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.1%1st Place
-
3.07Stanford University3.010.3%1st Place
-
2.98University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.3%1st Place
-
14.36California State University Monterey Bay-0.560.0%1st Place
-
6.55University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
-
6.5University of Southern California1.610.1%1st Place
-
11.47Western Washington University0.240.0%1st Place
-
11.53University of Southern California0.280.0%1st Place
-
10.23University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
-
9.33University of Washington0.790.0%1st Place
-
12.77University of British Columbia-0.120.0%1st Place
-
12.58University of California at Berkeley0.040.0%1st Place
-
8.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
-
14.07University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
-
13.08San Diego State University-0.250.0%1st Place
-
5.69University of Hawaii1.880.1%1st Place
-
11.82University of California at Santa Cruz0.120.0%1st Place
-
13.73University of California at Davis-0.380.0%1st Place
-
14.36California State University Monterey Bay-0.560.0%1st Place
-
15.29California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeline Kraus | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Russell Clarida | 25.8% | 22.5% | 17.8% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 26.9% | 23.5% | 16.3% | 13.9% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Elliott Elliott | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 15.0% | 15.7% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Comerford | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carter Erickson | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Lopez | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Hauter | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Wood | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Paulsen | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| Gillian Dean | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hitchcock | 7.0% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexis Miller | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Jodie Jacobs | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Elliott Elliott | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 15.0% | 15.7% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 10.8% | 14.8% | 28.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.