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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.71+2.82vs Predicted
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2Santa Clara University0.59+4.90vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.18+2.26vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.69-0.02vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.15+0.31vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.92+0.06vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.15+2.35vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara0.72-1.50vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara-0.64+1.79vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.34-2.18vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.44-0.81vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.01-0.08vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-2.33vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-0.91-4.45vs Predicted
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17Santa Clara University0.59-10.10vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.66-4.38vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-0.75-7.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.82University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.2%1st Place
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6.9Santa Clara University0.590.1%1st Place
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5.26University of Southern California1.180.1%1st Place
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3.98University of California at Santa Barbara1.690.2%1st Place
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5.31Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.150.1%1st Place
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6.06University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
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9.35University of California at San Diego-0.150.0%1st Place
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6.5University of California at Santa Barbara0.720.1%1st Place
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10.79University of California at Santa Barbara-0.640.0%1st Place
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7.82University of California at Santa Cruz0.340.1%1st Place
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10.19University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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11.92University of California at Davis-1.010.0%1st Place
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11.67University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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11.55University of California at Davis-0.910.0%1st Place
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6.9Santa Clara University0.590.1%1st Place
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13.62University of California at San Diego-1.660.0%1st Place
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11.26University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampson Reynolds | 19.6% | 18.3% | 16.1% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Dana | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Kiyotoki | 12.0% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Finestone | 18.7% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 14.6% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josselyn Verutti | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Rowland | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Jawetz | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Kripac | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Keelin Davis | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Konrad Brine | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 17.4% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Garcia | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| Burak Kocal | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Dana | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stephen O'Loughlin | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 12.0% | 17.1% | 39.6% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Vick | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.