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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.71+2.84vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.92+3.92vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.15+2.29vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara0.72+1.75vs Predicted
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6Santa Clara University0.59+0.99vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-0.64+3.91vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-1.01+3.90vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.18-3.87vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara1.69-6.04vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.44-0.73vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.91-0.43vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.15-3.71vs Predicted
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14Santa Clara University0.59-7.01vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-3.34vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz0.34-8.33vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.66-4.42vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-0.75-7.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.84University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.2%1st Place
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5.92University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
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5.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.150.1%1st Place
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6.75University of California at Santa Barbara0.720.1%1st Place
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6.99Santa Clara University0.590.1%1st Place
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10.91University of California at Santa Barbara-0.640.0%1st Place
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11.9University of California at Davis-1.010.0%1st Place
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5.13University of Southern California1.180.1%1st Place
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3.96University of California at Santa Barbara1.690.2%1st Place
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10.27University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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11.57University of California at Davis-0.910.0%1st Place
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9.29University of California at San Diego-0.150.0%1st Place
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6.99Santa Clara University0.590.1%1st Place
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11.66University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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7.67University of California at Santa Cruz0.340.1%1st Place
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13.58University of California at San Diego-1.660.0%1st Place
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11.28University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampson Reynolds | 20.4% | 16.9% | 15.1% | 13.9% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josselyn Verutti | 10.7% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Jawetz | 5.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Dana | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Kripac | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| Konrad Brine | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 14.6% | 15.9% | 15.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Kiyotoki | 11.1% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Finestone | 18.8% | 17.2% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Burak Kocal | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| Molly Rowland | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Dana | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Garcia | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Keelin Davis | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stephen O'Loughlin | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 12.1% | 17.0% | 38.9% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Vick | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.