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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.71+2.58vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.18+2.93vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.15+1.97vs Predicted
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4Santa Clara University0.59+2.66vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.92+0.63vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.69-2.21vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-1.36+5.46vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.34-0.79vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.44+0.69vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University0.59-3.34vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara-0.64-1.57vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.91-1.88vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.94-2.72vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-1.01-3.53vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-0.75-6.43vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-0.15-9.08vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.66-5.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.58University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.2%1st Place
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4.93University of Southern California1.180.1%1st Place
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4.97Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.150.1%1st Place
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6.66Santa Clara University0.590.1%1st Place
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5.63University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
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3.79University of California at Santa Barbara1.690.2%1st Place
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12.46University of California at Santa Barbara-1.360.0%1st Place
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7.21University of California at Santa Cruz0.340.0%1st Place
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9.69University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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6.66Santa Clara University0.590.1%1st Place
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10.43University of California at Santa Barbara-0.640.0%1st Place
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11.12University of California at Davis-0.910.0%1st Place
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11.28University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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11.47University of California at Davis-1.010.0%1st Place
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10.57University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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8.92University of California at San Diego-0.150.0%1st Place
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13.3University of California at San Diego-1.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampson Reynolds | 22.3% | 16.9% | 16.8% | 14.4% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Kiyotoki | 12.5% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josselyn Verutti | 12.3% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Dana | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Finestone | 18.9% | 19.3% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Boystak | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 19.8% | 20.9% | 0.0% |
| Keelin Davis | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Dana | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Kripac | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Burak Kocal | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Garcia | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Konrad Brine | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Vick | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Molly Rowland | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Stephen O'Loughlin | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 19.1% | 31.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.