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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+5.90vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.74+0.99vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+6.48vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.63+1.69vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.33+1.86vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-0.40vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.61+6.24vs Predicted
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8University of Washington1.53+1.54vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.56+4.62vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine1.06+1.62vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09+4.74vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.57-2.37vs Predicted
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13University of British Columbia0.70+0.18vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley1.36-3.53vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii2.14-7.71vs Predicted
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16University of Southern California1.96-7.96vs Predicted
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17Western Washington University0.46-3.08vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-0.00-2.13vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis0.13-3.79vs Predicted
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20California State University Monterey Bay0.56-6.38vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-0.11-4.99vs Predicted
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22California State University Channel Islands-2.13-1.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.9University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.1%1st Place
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2.99Stanford University3.740.3%1st Place
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9.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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5.69Stanford University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.86University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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5.6University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
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13.24University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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9.54University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
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13.62California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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11.62University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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15.74University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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9.63University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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13.18University of British Columbia0.700.0%1st Place
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10.47University of California at Berkeley1.360.0%1st Place
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7.29University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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8.04University of Southern California1.960.1%1st Place
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13.92Western Washington University0.460.0%1st Place
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15.87San Diego State University-0.000.0%1st Place
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15.21University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
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13.62California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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16.01University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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20.11California State University Channel Islands-2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simone Staff | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will La Dow | 28.7% | 24.0% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria El-Khazindar | 9.1% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Gordon | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 18.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georg Lauritsen | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Dorsay | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Yakutis | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marijke Jorna | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Rall | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 17.7% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Jayden Potter | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Hopper | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 19.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Kenneth Migliardi | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 8.6% | 76.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.