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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+3.38vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.28+4.15vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.15+0.62vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.72+4.00vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+4.29vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay0.14+8.69vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.62-2.00vs Predicted
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8University of Washington1.53+0.66vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.13+1.37vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles1.43-0.69vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California1.75-3.19vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.64+0.56vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.37+0.74vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.80-2.24vs Predicted
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15Western Washington University0.46-2.00vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay0.14-1.31vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-0.09-1.68vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Cruz0.26-4.00vs Predicted
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19University of British Columbia0.07-3.96vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis-0.19-4.17vs Predicted
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21San Diego State University-0.99-2.78vs Predicted
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22California State University Channel Islands0.15-7.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.38University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.2%1st Place
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6.15University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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3.62Stanford University3.150.2%1st Place
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8.0University of Southern California1.720.0%1st Place
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9.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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14.69California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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5.0Stanford University2.620.1%1st Place
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8.66University of Washington1.530.1%1st Place
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10.37University of California at Santa Barbara1.130.0%1st Place
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9.31University of California at Los Angeles1.430.0%1st Place
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7.81University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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12.56University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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13.74University of California at Berkeley0.370.0%1st Place
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11.76University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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13.0Western Washington University0.460.0%1st Place
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14.69California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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15.32University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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14.0University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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15.04University of British Columbia0.070.0%1st Place
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15.83University of California at Davis-0.190.0%1st Place
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18.22San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
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14.26California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Weis | 16.6% | 15.7% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Marshall | 19.9% | 18.5% | 18.0% | 13.5% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Houck | 13.4% | 14.8% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julia Downey | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Josefina Ruggieri | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Van Dam | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Chiu | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| James Letchinger | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 0.0% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 41.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.