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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+3.38vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.15+1.66vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.72+5.51vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.75+4.14vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.28+1.25vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.62-0.92vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.13+3.50vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.64+4.96vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.14+6.07vs Predicted
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10University of Washington1.53-1.03vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-1.84vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.80+0.20vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles1.43-3.52vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.19+2.59vs Predicted
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15University of British Columbia0.07+0.62vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley0.37-2.03vs Predicted
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17University of Victoria0.25-2.32vs Predicted
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18California State University Monterey Bay0.14-2.93vs Predicted
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19Western Washington University0.46-5.39vs Predicted
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20University of California at Santa Cruz0.26-5.67vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands0.15-5.85vs Predicted
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22University of California at Irvine-0.09-6.19vs Predicted
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23San Diego State University-0.99-4.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.38University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.2%1st Place
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3.66Stanford University3.150.2%1st Place
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8.51University of Southern California1.720.0%1st Place
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8.14University of Southern California1.750.0%1st Place
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6.25University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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5.08Stanford University2.620.1%1st Place
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10.5University of California at Santa Barbara1.130.0%1st Place
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12.96University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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15.07California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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8.97University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
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9.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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12.2University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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9.48University of California at Los Angeles1.430.0%1st Place
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16.59University of California at Davis-0.190.0%1st Place
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15.62University of British Columbia0.070.0%1st Place
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13.97University of California at Berkeley0.370.0%1st Place
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14.68University of Victoria0.250.0%1st Place
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15.07California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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13.61Western Washington University0.460.0%1st Place
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14.33University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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15.15California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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15.81University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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18.88San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Weis | 17.0% | 15.2% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Marshall | 22.7% | 19.3% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Houck | 11.8% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Downey | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Letchinger | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 14.6% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Chiu | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Josefina Ruggieri | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Maria Isberg | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Max Van Dam | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 0.0% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 14.6% | 40.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.