Race 1A

2017-sugar-bowl

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Darby Reddaway 10.1% 10.2% 11.4% 11.6% 12.3% 13.1% 14.3% 11.9% 4.8% 0.3%
Mary Berg 15.0% 13.7% 15.4% 13.4% 13.4% 11.3% 9.5% 7.0% 1.2% 0.1%
Megan Ploch 10.1% 11.2% 9.9% 11.8% 12.7% 14.0% 15.6% 10.8% 3.7% 0.2%
Lindsey Clark 5.1% 6.5% 7.5% 9.9% 8.5% 14.4% 16.5% 22.5% 7.4% 1.7%
Ryan Clulo 13.9% 15.3% 14.0% 14.5% 12.6% 12.7% 8.5% 6.6% 1.9% 0.0%
David Graf 6.5% 6.7% 7.3% 8.1% 9.6% 11.6% 16.1% 22.3% 10.5% 1.3%
Lane Tobin 18.0% 18.4% 16.9% 13.6% 13.1% 9.8% 7.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.0%
Jordan Johnson 0.4% 0.6% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 2.8% 3.3% 7.7% 40.8% 39.7%
Colton Gerber 20.5% 16.8% 15.7% 14.8% 14.5% 8.0% 6.7% 2.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Megan Carugati 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 2.3% 2.5% 6.8% 27.9% 56.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.