Race 5A

2017-sugar-bowl

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Megan Ploch 11.3% 10.7% 13.6% 10.5% 13.1% 12.7% 13.5% 10.2% 4.1% 0.3%
Lane Tobin 18.0% 18.7% 14.7% 15.2% 12.6% 8.6% 7.6% 4.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Colton Gerber 18.9% 16.3% 17.1% 14.0% 13.9% 9.1% 7.2% 2.8% 0.7% 0.0%
Mary Berg 13.8% 15.2% 14.7% 14.5% 13.6% 11.6% 9.4% 5.7% 1.4% 0.1%
Lindsey Clark 6.4% 8.1% 6.3% 8.1% 9.8% 11.7% 15.9% 23.1% 8.9% 1.7%
Ryan Clulo 16.5% 12.6% 12.9% 15.1% 12.3% 12.6% 10.7% 5.3% 1.9% 0.1%
Darby Reddaway 7.8% 10.6% 11.2% 12.9% 10.4% 16.3% 13.8% 12.7% 3.6% 0.7%
Jordan Johnson 0.4% 0.7% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 3.8% 7.5% 41.4% 39.1%
David Graf 6.2% 6.5% 7.8% 7.1% 11.1% 13.0% 15.8% 22.6% 8.2% 1.7%
Megan Carugati 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 1.3% 2.3% 2.3% 6.0% 29.4% 56.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.