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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.30+6.78vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.70+4.40vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.26+5.17vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+3.35vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+1.67vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.06+3.09vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.33+0.88vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.28-0.07vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.07+6.13vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.92-0.71vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-2.67vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38-4.34vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-3.93vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.38-6.20vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.34-7.21vs Predicted
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16Washington College2.12-3.64vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.42-2.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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6.4Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.17Georgetown University3.260.1%1st Place
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7.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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6.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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9.09SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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7.88Georgetown University3.330.1%1st Place
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7.93SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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15.13Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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9.29Old Dominion University2.920.0%1st Place
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8.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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9.07St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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7.8U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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7.79U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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12.36Washington College2.120.0%1st Place
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14.3Fordham University1.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Aswad | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Brady Stagg | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mason | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 8.1% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Kana | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Daniel Eichler | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Randall Hartranft | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Winter | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 19.8% | 49.9% |
| Zach Runci | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 1.6% |
| Ian Liberty | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Ike Babbitt | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| John Wallace | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 1.4% |
| Taylor Vann | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Devin Laviano | 6.6% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Hadley Burnham | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 18.7% | 8.9% |
| Michael DeNigris | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 24.8% | 32.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.