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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.93+5.81vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.35+3.33vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+3.00vs Predicted
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4University of Washington1.74+8.09vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.43+3.75vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.30vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.93-0.20vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College1.68+4.33vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University-0.44+11.20vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.91+1.11vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.94+0.20vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California1.72-0.02vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.34+0.93vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.71-6.50vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University1.35-1.10vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-2.71vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.93-6.11vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Cruz0.26+0.10vs Predicted
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19Western Washington University-0.54+1.26vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles0.92-4.74vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-0.75+0.31vs Predicted
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22University of California at Irvine-0.09-2.77vs Predicted
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23University of Minnesota-0.03-4.00vs Predicted
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24Cornell University2.54-15.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.81Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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5.33Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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6.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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12.09University of Washington1.740.0%1st Place
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8.75University of Pennsylvania2.430.1%1st Place
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6.3University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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6.8College of Charleston2.930.1%1st Place
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12.33Eckerd College1.680.0%1st Place
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20.2Santa Clara University-0.440.0%1st Place
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11.11University of Hawaii1.910.0%1st Place
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11.2Tufts University1.940.0%1st Place
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11.98University of Southern California1.720.0%1st Place
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13.93George Washington University1.340.0%1st Place
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7.5Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
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13.9Roger Williams University1.350.0%1st Place
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13.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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10.89Northwestern University1.930.0%1st Place
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18.1University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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20.26Western Washington University-0.540.0%1st Place
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15.26University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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21.31University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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19.23University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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19.0University of Minnesota-0.030.0%1st Place
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8.42Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Person | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Waddell | 12.1% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Skeel | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lenox Butcher | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Ratliffe | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Peterson | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Allison Glover | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 15.4% | 16.2% | 19.5% |
| Dylan Meade | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wells Drayton | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| John DeRuff | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Matt Cappetta | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Roach | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 14.1% | 9.3% | 4.8% |
| Benjamin Morasch | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 18.8% | 21.7% |
| Leah Ford | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Daniel Vick | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 19.0% | 32.2% |
| Drake Baldwin | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 16.2% | 10.5% |
| Miles Clark | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 10.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.