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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+5.20vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+3.97vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.54+5.50vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.35+1.44vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.93+1.65vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.93+0.91vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.72+5.03vs Predicted
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8University of Washington1.74+3.99vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.43-0.43vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.71-2.25vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College1.68+1.36vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University1.35+1.63vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.94-1.75vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.92+1.41vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-1.62vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University-0.54+4.63vs Predicted
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17Santa Clara University-0.44+3.08vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.34-4.22vs Predicted
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19Northwestern University1.93-8.29vs Predicted
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20University of Minnesota-0.03-1.09vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-0.75+0.30vs Predicted
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22University of Hawaii1.91-10.83vs Predicted
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23University of California at Irvine-0.09-3.82vs Predicted
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24University of California at Santa Cruz0.26-5.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.2University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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5.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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8.5Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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5.44Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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6.65Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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6.91College of Charleston2.930.1%1st Place
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12.03University of Southern California1.720.0%1st Place
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11.99University of Washington1.740.0%1st Place
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8.57University of Pennsylvania2.430.0%1st Place
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7.75Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
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12.36Eckerd College1.680.0%1st Place
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13.63Roger Williams University1.350.0%1st Place
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11.25Tufts University1.940.0%1st Place
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15.41University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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13.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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20.63Western Washington University-0.540.0%1st Place
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20.08Santa Clara University-0.440.0%1st Place
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13.78George Washington University1.340.0%1st Place
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10.71Northwestern University1.930.0%1st Place
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18.91University of Minnesota-0.030.0%1st Place
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21.3University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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11.17University of Hawaii1.910.0%1st Place
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19.18University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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18.19University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 10.0% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Waddell | 12.6% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Person | 10.0% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Ratliffe | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Karl Skeel | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lenox Butcher | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Cappetta | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Peterson | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Megan Roach | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Wells Drayton | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Liam Hood | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Morasch | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 15.5% | 19.4% | 21.6% |
| Allison Glover | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 16.6% | 21.2% |
| John DeRuff | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Miles Clark | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 10.1% |
| Daniel Vick | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 20.7% | 30.6% |
| Dylan Meade | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 15.0% | 10.5% |
| James Melvin | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.