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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+5.34vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.71+6.24vs Predicted
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3University of Washington1.74+9.67vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.91+8.02vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.18+5.44vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.35-0.32vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.41+2.52vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.54+0.95vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.24+1.00vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+3.88vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University1.93+0.79vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.68+0.77vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston2.93-5.59vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.93-6.87vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-8.21vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.43-6.68vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles0.92-1.14vs Predicted
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18Tufts University1.94-6.21vs Predicted
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19University of California at Santa Cruz0.26-0.88vs Predicted
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20University of Minnesota-0.03-0.78vs Predicted
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21University of California at Irvine-0.09-1.34vs Predicted
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22Western Washington University-0.54-1.24vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-0.75-1.89vs Predicted
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24Santa Clara University-0.44-3.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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8.24Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
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12.67University of Washington1.740.0%1st Place
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12.02University of Hawaii1.910.0%1st Place
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10.44University of Southern California2.180.0%1st Place
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5.68Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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9.52George Washington University2.410.0%1st Place
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8.95Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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10.0Roger Williams University2.240.0%1st Place
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13.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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11.79Northwestern University1.930.0%1st Place
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12.77Eckerd College1.680.0%1st Place
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7.41College of Charleston2.930.1%1st Place
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7.13Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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6.79University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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9.32University of Pennsylvania2.430.0%1st Place
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15.86University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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11.79Tufts University1.940.0%1st Place
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18.12University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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19.22University of Minnesota-0.030.0%1st Place
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19.66University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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20.76Western Washington University-0.540.0%1st Place
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21.11University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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20.52Santa Clara University-0.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrson Pearce | 12.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Cappetta | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Skeel | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Dylan Meade | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Stefanoni | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Waddell | 12.7% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Soenke Jordan | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alden Crowe | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 2.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 4.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Peterson | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Ratliffe | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Person | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lenox Butcher | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Wells Drayton | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 5.2% |
| Miles Clark | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 15.4% | 12.7% | 9.5% |
| Drake Baldwin | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 14.3% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 9.9% |
| Benjamin Morasch | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 17.3% | 18.5% | 23.1% |
| Daniel Vick | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 18.1% | 32.2% |
| Allison Glover | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 20.1% | 18.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.