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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.33+3.05vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.45+4.29vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.14+1.50vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii1.74+0.70vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.88-0.64vs Predicted
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7University of Washington1.53-0.66vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands0.15+1.94vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.95-1.10vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University1.03-2.23vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.92-2.83vs Predicted
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12University of Hawaii1.89-6.72vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University-0.01-2.39vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.75-1.92vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands0.15-5.06vs Predicted
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16University of British Columbia-0.23-5.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.05University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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6.29University of California at Santa Barbara1.450.1%1st Place
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4.5University of Hawaii2.140.2%1st Place
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5.7University of Hawaii1.740.1%1st Place
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5.36University of Hawaii1.880.1%1st Place
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6.34University of Washington1.530.1%1st Place
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9.94California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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7.9University of Washington0.950.1%1st Place
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7.77Western Washington University1.030.1%1st Place
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8.17University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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5.28University of Hawaii1.890.1%1st Place
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10.61Western Washington University-0.010.0%1st Place
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12.08University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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9.94California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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11.0University of British Columbia-0.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Wong | 17.6% | 18.9% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Baxter | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 16.2% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 8.5% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hitchcock | 9.0% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Gordon | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 17.2% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hughes | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Mathew Butler | 12.3% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikoline Alden | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 17.8% | 16.6% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Vick | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 19.0% | 44.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 17.2% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| James Hare | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 16.7% | 23.2% | 19.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.