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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.95+6.85vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.33+1.96vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.88+2.23vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.45+2.53vs Predicted
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5University of Washington1.53+1.31vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii2.14-1.31vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.74-1.56vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands0.15+2.08vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii1.89-3.71vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University1.03-3.13vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.92-3.87vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands0.15-2.92vs Predicted
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14Western Washington University-0.01-3.41vs Predicted
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15University of British Columbia-0.23-4.03vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-0.75-3.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.85University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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3.96University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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5.23University of Hawaii1.880.1%1st Place
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6.53University of California at Santa Barbara1.450.1%1st Place
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6.31University of Washington1.530.1%1st Place
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4.69University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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5.44University of Hawaii1.740.1%1st Place
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10.08California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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5.29University of Hawaii1.890.1%1st Place
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7.87Western Washington University1.030.0%1st Place
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8.13University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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10.08California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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10.59Western Washington University-0.010.0%1st Place
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10.97University of British Columbia-0.230.0%1st Place
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12.06University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Hughes | 4.9% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 18.9% | 17.0% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hitchcock | 12.5% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Baxter | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Gordon | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 13.6% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 11.1% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 15.5% | 17.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Mathew Butler | 10.2% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 15.5% | 17.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Nikoline Alden | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 17.6% | 18.5% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| James Hare | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 21.1% | 21.4% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Vick | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 19.3% | 42.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.