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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.45+5.43vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.74+3.49vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.88+2.22vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.33+0.07vs Predicted
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5University of British Columbia-0.23+6.09vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.89-0.68vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.92+0.81vs Predicted
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8University of Washington1.53-1.73vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii2.14-4.37vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University1.03-3.17vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University-0.01-1.34vs Predicted
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13University of Washington0.95-5.01vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands0.15-3.85vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.75-2.95vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands0.15-5.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.43University of California at Santa Barbara1.450.1%1st Place
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5.49University of Hawaii1.740.1%1st Place
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5.22University of Hawaii1.880.1%1st Place
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4.07University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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11.09University of British Columbia-0.230.0%1st Place
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5.32University of Hawaii1.890.1%1st Place
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7.81University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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6.27University of Washington1.530.1%1st Place
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4.63University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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7.83Western Washington University1.030.0%1st Place
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10.66Western Washington University-0.010.0%1st Place
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7.99University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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10.15California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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12.05University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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10.15California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Baxter | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hitchcock | 11.9% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 17.3% | 17.9% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Hare | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 22.2% | 22.5% | 0.0% |
| Mathew Butler | 11.9% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Gordon | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 13.7% | 14.8% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Nikoline Alden | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 11.4% | 17.4% | 18.7% | 17.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hughes | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 16.8% | 18.1% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Vick | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 18.3% | 42.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 16.8% | 18.1% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.